Friday, March 12, 2004

  Every Vote Counts, but Swing Voters in Swing States Are Ones That Count Most

The next president of the United States could be determined by a few million people living in the suburbs of Albuquerque, or Pittsburgh, or maybe St. Louis.

A new survey by the Pew Research Center in Washington says that "swing" voters -- those fence-sitters neither firmly for President Bush nor for his Democratic rival-apparent, Sen. John F. Kerry (Mass.) -- make up about 29 percent of the American electorate. These voters tend, by and large, to be white, nonunion members between the ages of 30 and 49, who have some college education and live in a suburb.

But there are swing voters, and then there are those who are really swingy. Forget about the undecided vote in "red" (Republican) and "blue" (Democratic) states. Assuming that red states remain red and blue remain blue in November, the votes of undecideds in those heavily partisan places aren't likely to change the electoral college map much, says Andrew Kohut, the Pew center's director.

The more interesting question is how swing voters in swing states will vote. Considering how close the 2004 race is expected to be, these folks could constitute the single most critical bloc of voters in the election. That's where Albuquerque, Pittsburgh and a few other places figure in.

Pew says this group -- the swing swingers? -- currently represents just 9.5 percent of the electorate, or about 10 million voters.

The center's research director, Michael Dimock, says there are at least 15 states up for grabs in the fall: Minnesota, Arkansas, Michigan, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Oregon, Iowa, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Missouri, New Hampshire, Louisiana, Ohio, Tennessee and (naturally) Florida, birthplace of the chad. (Dimock's list is based on an average of how those states voted in the past three presidential elections.)

Bottom line: If you happen to be a swing voter in a swing state, brace yourself for months of phone calls, ads and direct mail pieces soliciting your vote. Bush started last week, with TV spots targeting 17 "battleground" states. Says Kohut of the undecideds, "It's going to get pretty weird for them."

  Malcolm X: "The Ballot or the Bullet"

Malcolm said it 40 years ago:

As they see these new political trends, it's possible for them to see that every time there's an election the races are so close that they have to have a recount. They had to recount in Massachusetts to see who was going to be governor, it was so close. It was the same way in Rhode Island, in Minnesota, and in many other parts of the country. And the same with Kennedy and Nixon when they ran for president. It was so close they had to count all over again. Well, what does this mean? It means that when white people are evenly divided, and black people have a bloc of votes of their own, it is left up to them to determine who's going to sit in the White House and who's going to be in the dog house.
But we never learned the lesson. Its time for a change. The black vote must stop selling out Black America by giving away the milk for free. Join with me to earn the respect of the political power brokers in America.

Thursday, March 11, 2004

  Quick overview of my plan:
  1. Every black person should register as a democrat
  2. In the presidential election vote for Bush if you don't live in a swing state
  3. If you live in a swing state vote on this issues you believe in

  What others have said:

Why I am a Republican - baldilocks
In other words, I, Miss Black Middle Class, finally got an up-close and personal view of my poor, downtrodden brethren and saw who exactly it was that was keeping them poor and downtrodden. Hint: it wasn’t white Republicans.

Contract with Black America
Education is the most obvious example. Poll after poll shows that most blacks want school vouchers. But Democrats -- black and white alike -- bitterly oppose anything that would offend the teachers' unions, who are among their biggest political backers, in terms of money, votes, and the ability to mobilize precincts on Election Day with manpower and phone banks.

In Praise of Hard Work:
Hard work. Not making excuses. Refusing to blame others. Appreciation of this country's rule of law and its free enterprise system, along with a willingness to accept the consequences of one's own actions. Or, as our ex-homeless-man turned stockbroker, who now runs a multimillion-dollar firm, put it, "If all of this were to crash tomorrow, I'd get up the next day and get back at it. I've been there, OK? The worst thing in the world that can happen has already happened. What's next?" Affirmative action, meet affirmative attitude.

  Mission Statement:

Since the Democrats have failed in their mission to respect and protect their strongest supporters and ignored the black vote I have decided to vote for Bush in the following Election. For me the decision is very easy I live in NYC and NY always goes democrat so my vote is effectively useless in a presidential election. Unfortunately the sick feeling I get when I consider voting republican means that I am not a swing voter and thus elected officials ignore my needs. Over the next few months I will be investigating and sharing why Blacks should vote for Bush in 2004.

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